Wwhile the UK is less involved in the Middle East conflict militarily, the consequences for this country could still be significant. And nowhere more so than in the energy sector. It is not surprising, then, that the commentary focuses on the potential impact of policy on the price of energy in UK households and businesses, and whether the decisions taken by the government will make the public more secure – or less energy.
The usual suspects of Reform and the Tory party used the war as an excuse to renew the claims that the North Sea is dry of oil and gas left, in order – they say – to end dependence on fossil fuels and ensure energy security. Reasonable heads have been arguing that the North Sea is a field of the past, and it has only a small amount of oil and gas left, and that energy security can only be achieved if we continue faster and faster in renewables. Strangely, the real reason why there is no other significant use of North Sea oil and gas seems to have been completely forgotten, or at least sidelined.
Oil is being shut off not for emergency renewables, or even to protect the country from the kind of disasters brought on by foreign wars, but because we are on the cusp of a climate emergency that requires every country to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The UK is already struggling to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target of 68% compared to 1990 levels, and is on track to achieve zero emissions by 2050. Any resurgence in fossil fuel use could blow a hole in these already tight ambitions.
Just because all eyes are on the Gulf doesn’t mean the weather is over. Away with it. The truth is that our situation is getting worse, almost every day. The first three months of the year saw record-breaking temperatures across much of the US, something that would not have been possible without global warming. Meanwhile, floods have devastated Hawaii, northern Australia, and the Gulf states of Oman and the UAE. In England and Wales, February this year was the wettest on record, according to the winter rains that fell in many places.
The long and short of it is that we are in the midst of a severe weather emergency, and we cannot afford to be distracted by ill-informed calls for domestic oil and gas gluts. We are on track to hit the dangerous 1.5C target over the next three years. This corresponds to the best estimate of the temperature at which important climate data will be transferred, especially the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, which could eventually mean a rise in sea level of 10 meters.
While we continue to debate the rights and wrongs of reopening the North Sea to continue drilling, global warming shows no such tendency. The worst news was revealed in the journal Nature published just a week after the Iranian bomb was launched, which is that the rate of global warming has increased since 2015, and is now almost double what it was in the 1970s. The current rate – close to 0.35C per decade – means that without serious action on emissions, we will see the 2C limit eroded once in the late 2030s, with no end in sight.
Even as temperatures increase, fossil fuels continue to dominate energy production. Here in the UK, gas was still responsible for around a third of UK electricity production by 2025, and – despite the rise of EVs, most cars still burn petrol or diesel. Globally, by 2024, fossil fuels provided 59% of the electricity supply, and powered almost all transportation. We need these numbers to go down, not up – and fast.
Doubling North Sea oil and gas use now would make these numbers even bigger, and would send the wrong message to the rest of the world. War tends to focus our attention only on the conflict and its immediate consequences. Those are important, but we can’t lose sight of the bigger picture. As pressure grows to roll back on green laws and back away from strong climate action, it is imperative that governments hold back and leave North Sea oil and gas on the ground.
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