Governments across Asia are increasing their use of coal, the dirtiest fuel, as they try to cover the huge energy deficit caused by the US-Israel war against Iran.
This process has produced warnings from climate experts who point to the negative environmental impact of coal, and they say that the energy crisis should be an invitation for governments to invest in renewables, which can provide a more stable supply that is not exposed to price changes.
Across the region, from Bangladesh to South Korea, governments are trying to compensate for declining energy imports, mostly from the Middle East.
South Korea has said it will delay the closure of coal-fired power plants and has raised electricity quotas from coal, while in Thailand, the government has increased production at the country’s largest coal plant. The Philippines, which has declared a “national energy emergency” because of the war, is also planning to boost the performance of its coal-fired power plants.
In South Asia, India, which depends on coal for about 75% of its power generation, has asked its coal plants to operate at maximum capacity and avoid planned shutdowns, while Bangladesh increased coal power production and coal power supplies in March.
Governments are racing to overcome shortages, particularly in the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has been promoted as a bridge fuel in the transition from coal to clean energy – even though research has shown that exported gas produces more greenhouse gases than coal.
Many countries in the region rely on LNG to generate electricity, as well as industries such as fertilizer production. It has been predicted that demand in Asia will double in the next 25 years.
However, supplies have been cut by the successful closing of the strait of Hormuz, although a fifth of the world’s LNG supplies pass through. A strike at Qatar’s biggest LNG exporter will worsen the shortage and have a long-term impact on the industry, experts say.
About 30bn cubic meters of LNG have been removed from global supply chains, of which more than 80% are not in the Indo-Pacific region, said Henning Gloystein, managing director of energy and resources at Eurasia Group. He said that the last remaining supplies from the mine before the heavy fighting will arrive next week.
“The world market has shrunk in four weeks from a healthy supply surplus… to a severe shortage – and that will not only lead to higher prices, but also fuel shortages.”
“Those countries that have coal resources will be [using] because it is the fastest and cheapest way to replace LNG,” he added, although he noted that countries like India are also increasing renewable energy.
Delhi has expedited licensing of wind power plants and battery energy storage systems.
Pauline Heinrichs, a climate expert at King’s College London, says this crisis should be a turning point for governments. “Coal’s impact on climate and health outcomes is damaging and dangerous – and we’ve proven that for decades. Not only does it exacerbate climate risks, of course, but so does pollution and toxins,” he said.
The current energy crisis has highlighted the importance of renewable energy “not only as a climate issue, but ultimately for energy security in Asia as a whole”.
“Those resources that have a lot of renewable energy are actually very limited,” he said.
Governments should not allow coal to return to the energy system for a long time, he added. “We need to learn that this is the time to break that cycle of responding to short-term disruptions caused by fossil fuels with fossil fuel investments, because they are not short-term investments – they are long-term investments in diversification.”
“It is not sustainable to depend on coal,” added Dinita Setyawati, senior energy analyst for Asia at thinktank Ember, who is based in Jakarta. “Renewables in the home are a way to improve security and increase energy.”
Countries across Asia are looking for ways to reduce energy use, with the Philippines and Sri Lanka introducing four-day weeks for many government workers, and Vietnam encouraging people to work from home. Bangladesh closed its universities early, ushered in the Eid al-Fitr holiday, and introduced a planned blackout, while Pakistan moved schools to teach remotely and online.
Gloystein added that it will take years to restore LNG facilities. “This is not a short-term thing – people are hoping that next week there will be some kind of escalation or a ceasefire and we will get back to normal,” he said. “This is going to stay with us for a while because the damage that was done, it will take years to repair.”
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