On the other hand, experts say, Europe is more prepared for this crisis than the previous one. On the other hand, it is fighting a cultural war against the most obvious way out.
Fuel prices have risen to dangerous levels since the war with Iran left oil and natural gas (LNG) tankers in the Gulf. The pain is particularly acute in Asia, but high energy prices are already causing panic in Europe. Shortages could hit the continent this month, oil company Shell warned last week. Donald Trump’s “go get your own oil” comments on Tuesday sent prices to their highest level since the US-Israeli attack on Iran. They dipped below $100-a-barrel on Wednesday amid hopes that the war could end soon.
However, efforts to accelerate the transition from an economy that uses dirty foreign fuels, to cheap, clean domestic renewables, have been muted. Instead, rising energy prices have given lobbyists more ammunition to attack carbon pricing with some claiming that the bloc’s climate policy threatens factories and jobs. Its methane emissions have also gone into renewable combustion.
Will Europe’s second fossil energy crisis in the last decade force leaders to stop relying on polluting and global warming fossil fuels?
The energy shock of 2022 hit Europe when its energy mix was very shaken. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caught the governments by surprise, despite Russian gas giant Gazprom withdrawing German gas supplies in the months leading up to the war and strong warnings from allies that followed. The gas shortages that followed coincided with reduced production from nuclear power plants, which needed maintenance, and hydroelectric dams, which were affected by drought.
Now, as the conflict in Iran causes oil prices to rise again, Europe stands in a stable position. Wind and solar took over from fossil fuels to generate electricity in the European Union last year, after authorities accelerated the deployment of renewables by shortening the approval process. The cost of clean alternatives has continued to fall, making it easier than it was in the last crisis for households to buy solar panels, electric cars, heat pumps and batteries.
However, since then, EU officials and national leaders have begun to roll back key parts of the Green Deal they were backing. Fearing right-wing attacks on climate policy – and eager to appease struggling industries that blame green laws for their plight – a prominent right-wing group in the European parliament has created a “competition” for the future. Pollution costs have taken a back seat.
Foreign pressure did not help. Last week, MEPs approved a trade deal with the US linked to Trump’s demand that Europe buy $750bn of its own energy – much of it based on fossil fuels – over three years. Although the need for energy was not part of the election (lawmakers do not have the power to make companies buy US fuel), the deal has alarmed campaigners who fear the signal it sends to a country that already uses energy as a weapon.
The change in political opinion is very clear in Germany. Europe’s biggest polluter is watering down the rules to remove gas boilers, which the previous government brought in after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and last week its economy minister told an audience of oil and gas executives that the EU should relax its zero target. Meanwhile, the prospect of joining the rest of the world’s democracies by implementing blanket speed on its roads remains a political issue. Appeals from the International Energy Agency to survive the oil price hike with more drastic measures – avoid flights, drive slowly, work from home – have been ignored.
Perhaps the biggest threat to the green transition is the attacks on the EU’s high emissions trading system, which puts a price on carbon pollution. Several EU member states and the host chemical industry put it in place well before the outbreak of war. On Wednesday, EU officials announced plans to weaken its carbon price by ending the cancellation of additional permits in the buffer pool. The move did not amount to the more drastic change sought by other member states, but alarmed green groups who fear it will lead to a “peak” after 2030.
The picture is far from the open return to fossil fuels embraced by the US. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, announced last month that she will order a lower tax on electricity than on fossil fuels – which is the key to change – and boost investment in the decarbonisation of industry. A few of the country’s leaders have also called for accelerating the transition to a clean economy, even as they are considering broad subsidies to protect consumers from rising fuel prices.
However, the measurement of activity mentioned by climate scientists and economists remains difficult. During the oil crisis of 1973, when Europe began to adapt to its dependence on fossil fuels, several countries began to make new and radical changes in their energy systems. From Dutch bike lanes and Danish wind farms to French nuclear power plants and Nordic heating systems, European leaders have shown that crisis can make a difference. The demand has grown, but the imagination seems to have waned.
Bad legal system
European eyes are on Hungary ahead of the April 12 general election, where Viktor Orbán faces a possible victory. Under Orbán’s leadership, the liberal democracy, governed by the rule of law – as EU members require – has, in effect, been transformed into a one-party state. Democratic institutions have been systematically suppressed: the judiciary is filled with government loyalists and the independent media has been destroyed.
But even if Orbán is removed from power this month, the same power is a threat to democracy in other parts of Europe. Italy, Croatia, Bulgaria and Slovakia were identified on Monday as “consistently and deliberately” violating the law. Other countries are also showing signs of regression.
There are startling signs that Orbán’s playbook is being used as a framework. The Italian government has used defamation suits to silence journalists and public intellectuals. In France a right-wing parliamentary inquiry into public broadcasting has been accused by Le Monde of behaving like an “ideological war machine”. In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party has a network of public broadcasters in its territory.
A new series by the Guardian’s Europe writers provides a powerful picture of what’s happening – and why it matters. The good news is that the battle is still on.
Until next week.
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