SpaceX is seen as a make-or-break test for mega IPOs

Written by Manya Saini

April 1 (Reuters) – The global IPO market has been in need of a win for years and Elon Musk’s SpaceX may be the breakthrough. The last company to hit the market with a valuation exceeding a billion dollars was Saudi Aramco in 2019.

A trillion-dollar valuation, a CEO with a small sales following and exposure to a booming industry – SpaceX has the elements the IPO market has been looking for to end a years-long drought in mega-deals.

But whether investors have the desire to acquire a list of this size is not well known. In addition, the company is so unique that its success may have little effect on broader market sentiment, analysts and experts said.

“It could be a bellwether or a harbinger,” Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, told Reuters.

He added that there is enough passion around the business to attract the interest of investors, but it may be singular, with its famous CEO, that it may actually hurt other areas of the region instead of raising them by attracting all the attention.

Here are some charts showing the current state of the market and the potential for a SpaceX IPO:

The rocket startup has privately filed for a blockbuster listing, which seeks to raise $50 billion or more, which could be valued at $1.75 trillion, potentially dethroning Saudi oil giant Aramco as the world’s largest IPO.

“SpaceX will be the largest IPO in history at the size currently being discussed,” said Samuel Kerr, head of capital markets at data provider Mergermarket.

“It will be a real test for the ability of the public market during the chaos of the real market. But if any business can list in this market, maybe its SpaceX has given a big hype.”

The PIVOTAL TESTSpaceX listing can act as a bellwether for the IPO market. A strong reception could signal that the long-awaited big-ticket recovery is underway.

Years of volatile markets, fueled by rising interest rates, inflationary concerns and political strife, awaited traders, even as the pipeline grew. The industry is hoping that 2026 will finally see a broader shift in market trends.

“SpaceX’s successful listing could act as a catalyst for other large IPOs,” said Kat Liu, vice president at IPO research firm IPOX.

“It will show that the public market has the depth and willingness to accept large, high-quality offers, and it can help confirm the latest prices in the private market.”

Several high-profile startups, including SpaceX, ChatGPT developer OpenAI and TikTok parent ByteDance, have blurred the line between private and public companies, with valuations rivaling those of top S&P 500 firms.

SpaceX’s listing will put it in the same league as giants like Microsoft and Apple, which draw the lion’s share of retail and institutional flows.

Elon Musk said in February that SpaceX had acquired his artificial intelligence product xAI in a record-setting deal. The transaction valued SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion, Reuters reported, citing a source.

“XAI’s recent involvement allows him (Musk) to combine the startup, Starlink, and AI into a single, unique story that can support higher value than businesses can achieve separately,” said Minmo Gahng, associate professor of finance at Cornell University.

SpaceX generated about $8 billion in profit on $15 billion to $16 billion in revenue last year, Reuters reported in January, citing people familiar with the matter.

A list of the main factors followed by the list has performed below the financial conditions during the last 12 months.

Analysts say a successful SpaceX bid could help reopen the window for large, long-delayed listings, particularly in high-income sectors that have struggled to attract public-market investors.

While others have taken a more cautious view of the broader market’s prospects.