The war in the Middle East made the case for renewal – what happens in each country tells a more complicated story.

A world dependent on oil is in crisis. Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz – through which more than a quarter of the world’s marine oil trade and a fifth of the world’s natural gas flows – has come to a standstill! Oil prices rose, briefly reaching $119 a barrel.

The largest release of oil from strategic reserves in history is underway, in an effort to reduce prices. But even so, billions of people are dealing with rising energy prices and rising food and fertilizer costs. Governments are looking for alternatives, too. To reduce energy demand, Sri Lanka declared every Wednesday a holiday for civil servants, Myanmar reduced the use of private cars every day, and Bangladeshi colleges canceled classes.

South Korean leaders and the European Commission have used the current energy crisis to call for an accelerated transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable sources at home. The Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, made it clear in a public announcement on March 10, 2026: “There are no prices for sunlight and there is no stopping wind.”

I grew up in a coal mining town in Turkey. I am currently studying the transfer of power across the Middle East and North Africa in a research project that I lead at Harvard University. I have seen that the country’s desire to increase renewable energy is not the same as the plan to do so.

The area involved in this battle reveals that there is no limited transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources. Instead, there are distinct paths, driven by power dependence, financial pressures, governance and stability. The Strait of Hormuz conflict does not mean the same thing in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as it does in Ankara, Turkey, or Baghdad, Iraq.

Petrostates surround both sides

For Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, this crisis is a warning disguised as a breeze.

Oil prices have increased, which means more money. But the very infrastructure that produces and distributes that wealth is under direct attack. Iran is eyeing oil refineries and shipping facilities across the Gulf. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the same time hampers their ability to deliver product to market, exposing how vulnerable oil reserves can be.

These three countries have also pledged to boost the production of renewable energy. For example, in Saudi Arabia, the government plans for renewable energy sources to account for 50% of electricity production by 2030, up from just 3% by the end of 2023.

Saudi Arabia’s largest group of clean energy companies has pledged to spend $17 billion on solar and wind – across all their projects, spread over several years.

But that effort is accompanied by huge investments in fossil fuel production. In 2025 alone, the country’s national oil company, Saudi Aramco, spent $52.2 billion to build new oil and gas facilities.

This is not a contradiction. It is a policy based on the assumption that the world will continue to buy coal for decades to come. The current crisis confirms that assumption, but also exposes its weakness: As the war raises oil prices, every oil-importing country feels the cost of continuing to depend on oil. And every desperate delivery proves that the power revolution is not standing still.

Shocking price and demand

Foreign countries such as Jordan, Morocco and Turkey are investing in renewable energy for different reasons: Reliance on fossil fuels is depleting.

Turkey imports more than 70% of its fossil fuels, including almost all of its natural gas, 17% of which comes from Iran. Natural gas accounts for less than a fifth of electricity generation, but it is the backbone of the country’s heating and industrial sectors and is a major concern if supply runs low. Turkey’s energy bill is rising at a time when the economy is under pressure from rising borrowing costs and a weakening currency.

Jordan, which has historically bought more than 90% of its energy, is facing similar pressures.

But these countries would be in a worse position if they had not invested in alternatives.

More than half of the electricity installed in Turkey now comes from renewable energy sources. Morocco has built one of the world’s largest solar power plants, and renewable sources now provide 25% of the country’s electricity. Similarly, Jordan has gone from almost no renewable electricity to renewable sources that provide more than a quarter of its energy in nearly a decade.

The current war has confirmed their investment in renewable energy – although the confirmation has limits. The same problems that prove the value of renewable energy investments also raise inflation, stabilize debt and squeeze the public funds these countries need to continue building.

Every kilowatt hour produced by a Turkish wind turbine or a Moroccan solar panel is independent of a tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz. But financial pressures mean creating the next renewable project has become more difficult.

Crisis upon crisis

Then there are countries where this war falls on top of the emergency situation.

Iraq, the second largest oil producer in the region and in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, relies on Iranian gas supplies to generate much of its electricity – a supply line that is now directly threatened by the conflict. Oil exports from the southern port of Basra, in the Persian Gulf, support about 90% of the Iraqi government’s revenue. If those revenues are interrupted, the government may not be able to function. Iraq already has chronic power shortages and no renewable energy to fall back on.

In Yemen, Libya and Syria, electricity infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed by years of conflict. These countries import fuel at world prices to run generators and keep hospitals lit. Every dollar added to the price of oil makes it more difficult. For them, this war does not justify switching to renewable sources: It threatens access to energy itself.

International challenge

In November 2026, the annual climate meeting of the UN arrives at the center of this crisis, with Turkey as the host.

The conflict in the Middle East has made a strong case for the economic, political and humanitarian benefits of switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. But it also exposed something that the world conversation always misses: Different countries are moving in different directions, depending on their circumstances, many of which existed before this war.

Understanding those pathways is important because it reveals what countries cannot promise: where the real obstacles are, where incentives already exist, and where support can make a difference – before the next obstacle arrives. In my opinion, this battle helped win the debate on whether to switch to renewable energy, but it also highlighted a more difficult question: What does it actually take to build those sources, country by country?